Excel Funds Management Inc.

Emerging Markets

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Emerging economies have kept debt in check

Equity markets in the US, Japan, and Europe have rallied significantly and have outperformed emerging markets for the year. However, this will be a one year anomaly as borrowing and printing money does not drive prosperity. While Western countries have used the slow economy as a chance to rationalize excessive government borrowing and spending, emerging economies have been able to maintain stability in their governments’ balance sheets. Debt to GDP ratios have climbed in the US, Japan, the UK and the Eurozone rapidly since 2000.

Italy and Greece, which already had debt levels above 100% back in 2000, show the long term consequences of excessive government spending. Their economies are two of the world’s slowest growing economies in the 21st century. The rest of the heavily indebted countries could face the same struggle. They will have to choose whether to cause a recession through a “fiscal cliff” style austerity or continue deficit spending until a debt crisis or high inflation erodes the real purchasing power of the country’s citizens. Both outcomes are severe anchors to future real GDP growth.

Emerging economies on the other hand have kept debt in check. If a Chinese hard landing slows down the region, Asian economies have the cash reserves to stimulate the economy. In addition, emerging central banks can allow domestic currencies to appreciate and stimulate consumption through increased real purchasing power. A rising currency may cost these countries exports in the short term, but those will decline already due to the struggles in Western economies.

With Debt to GDP ratios in emerging markets countries lower due to the higher growth in the region verses developed nations, emerging market debt provides a less volatile option to investors. We have seen equity like returns from this asset class within the past year and it should continue to offer great returns and diversification to investors worldwide.  

Written by Sam A.

Debt Levels Will See Developed World Underperform Emerging Markets


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Institutions are increasingly searching for alternative yields…

Melanie Trimbell, of the Financial Standard, recently wrote Fund Managers are bullish on Bonds due to the recent announcement of QE3 and the ECB’s concerted bond buying program.

In an interview with Trimbell, Geoff Pidgeon head of asset management for HSBC in Australia said “ institutions are increasingly searching for alternative yields”.

The article does a good job of explaining the dynamics of the fixed income market in terms of local denominated fixed income and hard currency, or USD denominated, fixed income. Historically emerging markets offered higher yields but were not considered safe havens. However recent noticeable momentum in spreads and fundamental resilience in Asia’s corporate fixed income space has led to Asia fixed income having increased appeal.

The Excel Income Funds have done a great job for investors in participating in yield enhanced geographic areas ,such as Asian Fixed Income, as well as other regions that Sergei Strigo identifies as having momentum.

Written by Jack S.

Read more [webpage]: http://www.financialstandard.com.au/news/view/23140897

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Investors are starting to realize that through the European debt crisis; most emerging market countries took the time to re-organize their economies, maximize efficiencies and are now better prepared for the next phase of growth. These measures have included greater debt-servicing measures, managing inflation rates and developing more sustainable resources for long term growth.

The emerging markets have immense numbers of urbanizing, educated and wealthy youth with ferocious appetites for goods and services. A massive manufacturing industry is not anything new when reading about China or India; however, reading about renewable and sustainable energy with international recognition is new to many BRIC investors.

Above and beyond the clear positive environmental effects, these initiatives speak to a maturing in BRIC country leaders. It speaks to leaders that realize with over 70% of the population of which 45% are under the age of 25, a short or even medium term plan is not enough. Most importantly it speaks volumes to investors across that the BRICs are continuously evolving to accommodate long term growth.

The emergence of the BRIC nations as global powerhouses is in full swing and their long term growth is being enhanced daily – where are you invested?

Written by Jeremie C.

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